摘要：对2003—2012年8月南京市大气污染物的WRF-FLEXPART粒子扩散模式进行模拟,并基于10 a大气污染物粒子的后向轨迹的模拟,根据气候分析影响南京大气污染物的周边源区域,并定量估算周边污染物源区的年际变化,以确定影响2014年南京青年奥运会期间空气质量的大气污染物周边源区。结果表明:8月份强影响南京的污染源区域集中在南京及其紧邻的苏南和皖东南地区,且多年保持基本不变;随着传输时效的增加,影响南京大气污染源区域以南京为中心分别向东南方向的苏南、上海和浙北地区,西南方向的皖南、赣东北和鄂东北地区和偏东方向的江苏北部及安徽东部扩展,南京西北方向污染物影响域范围最小;南京周边源的强年际变化区域覆盖了其外缘的江苏、安徽、江西、湖北和浙江部分地区。

关键词：FLEXPART粒子扩散模式；气候模拟；污染源区；南京青年奥运会；长三角地区

Abstract：The air pollutant source regions impacting Nanjing in August was modeled with WRF-FLEXPART from 2003 to 2012. Based on the modeling of air pollutant backwards trajectories in 10 a， the boundary of the surrounding sources of air pollutants transporting to Nanjing were climatologically analyzed， and their interannual variability was quantitatively characterized for determining the air pollutant source areas impacting air quality during 2014 Youth Olympics Games in Nanjing. The results show that the dominant sources with less interannual variations in August are concentrated in Nanjing and its immediate surrounding areas in southern Jiangsu and southeastern Anhui. With the increase of transport time， the air pollutant sources expand from Nanjing southeastwards to the region in southern Jiangsu， Shanghai and northern Zhejiang， southwestwards to the region in southern Anhui， northeastern Jiangxi and north-eastern Hubei， and northeastwards to the area in northern and central Jiangsu and eastern Anhui， but the air pollutant source areas are limited in northwest of Nanjing. The strong interannual variability in the source regions exists over the outer edges in Jiangsu， Anhui， Jiangxi， Hubei and Zhejiang. 

Keywords: FLEXPART particle diffusion model； climate simulation； source region；YouthOlympicGamesin Nanjing；YangtzeRiverDelta region